Tesla says FSD v15 is a ‘step-change,’ Optimus sells in 2027

Tesla gave JPMorgan an updated timeline for its self-driving software, robotaxi service, and Optimus robot during a visit to its Fremont factory. Tesla says its next software update, FSD v15 (Full Self-Driving), is a major leap forward, and that the computer already in current cars, called HW4, is powerful enough to handle driving without a person supervising. Tesla made the same claim years ago about the older HW3 computer, before quietly scaling it back — HW3 cars now get a limited version of the software instead. So this isn't the first time Tesla has said its current hardware is finally enough.

On the robotaxi side, Tesla says it's confident it can expand its Cybercab service soon, aiming for a running cost around 30 cents a mile with growth picking up between late 2026 and early 2027. In practice, its driverless taxi service in Austin still uses only a small number of cars more than a year after launch. Tesla also told the bank its Optimus humanoid robot could go on sale to outside buyers as soon as the second half of 2027, with a factory line being set up in Fremont. Tesla has delayed showing the finished robot multiple times, and has acknowledged none are yet doing useful work in its own factory.

None of this changes anything for homeowners right now — it's a look at Tesla's internal projections, not a product or rebate you can act on. Whether these timelines hold up remains to be seen, given Tesla's history of missing similar targets.