Solar generation expected to grow 21% this year, 18% in 2027: EIA

The federal government's Energy Information Administration expects U.S. electricity use to grow 2% this year and 2% again in 2027, driven largely by data centers and manufacturing growth. That extra demand is pulling more solar power onto the grid: the agency forecasts solar generation will grow 21% in 2026 and 18% in 2027, with wind generation up 7% and 5% those same years. Natural gas generation will also grow modestly, while coal-fired generation keeps shrinking, down 8% this year and 6% next year.

Most of the new solar is concentrated in Texas's ERCOT grid and the Midwest's MISO region, not spread evenly across the country. Businesses, not homes, are driving most of the demand growth — commercial electricity sales are expected to rise faster than residential use.

For homeowners, this is mostly background context rather than a direct call to action. It signals that the power flowing into the grid is shifting toward more solar and wind and less coal, which can affect the mix of energy behind your electric bill over time, especially if you live in Texas or the Midwest. It does not change any rebate programs, deadlines, or home upgrade incentives on its own. If you are weighing rooftop solar or other upgrades, the bigger picture is simply that solar is becoming a larger share of the grid nationally, and growth is fastest in a handful of states rather than uniform everywhere.