Section 232 tariffs push U.S. module prices to 2023 levels, but analysts see a path back to 30 cents per watt

New federal tariffs on solar panel materials are set to push solar prices higher, which could affect anyone considering rooftop panels for their home. The Trump Administration's trade action, announced August 6 and taking effect December 4, 2026, sets a minimum price for imported solar cells and panels plus a 15% tariff, stacking on top of existing tariffs. Analysts at Intertek CEA say this has already pushed spot prices for panels to about 46 cents per watt, the highest since 2022-2023.

The tariffs are expected to end most panel imports, pushing the market toward panels assembled in the U.S. using imported cells. Analysts predict prices will eventually settle around 30 cents per watt as manufacturers adjust, though that could take time. Companies that both make cells and assemble panels are expected to fare best, since they can absorb costs on one part of the process to stay competitive on the other. Companies that only assemble panels, without making their own cells, may struggle more, and analysts don't expect much new investment in building cell or wafer factories in the U.S. because of ongoing policy uncertainty.

For homeowners, the practical effect is that solar equipment costs could stay elevated into 2026 and beyond as the industry works through new rules, supply chain shifts, and expected delays at customs while the government sets up processes to enforce the tariffs. Prices are expected to sort themselves out over the next couple of years as more U.S. panel assembly comes online.