Price Increases Remain Part of the Residential HVAC Outlook

Two major heating and cooling equipment makers, Carrier and Trane, say home heating and cooling demand is stronger this year than expected, but prices are still going up. Both companies point to tariffs and higher costs for materials like copper, steel, and aluminum as the reason. Carrier's CEO said the company has been raising prices and may add more increases, though not at the pace of 2022, when prices jumped roughly 8% several times over about two years. Trane has already put through two residential price increases this year, in April and July, each up to 5%, and expects pricing pressure to continue through the rest of the year.

For homeowners, this means the cost of replacing a furnace, air conditioner, or heat pump is likely to keep climbing rather than level off. Trane noted that pricing varies a lot by location, so what you pay can differ depending on where you live. Both companies also said the earlier trend of homeowners repairing old equipment instead of replacing it has faded, with more people now moving ahead with full replacements.

Overall demand is picking up too: Carrier estimates the U.S. residential market will hit about 7.5 million units this year, up from its earlier forecast but still below the 9.2 million units sold in 2024. If you've been putting off replacing an aging system, the takeaway is that waiting is unlikely to make it cheaper. Rebates and efficiency incentives may help offset some of these rising equipment costs, so it's worth checking what's available in your state.