How Much Windfall Profit Have Oil Companies Made in Europe?

When conflict broke out in Iran on February 28, 2026, oil prices jumped, with Brent crude climbing above $100 a barrel. That price spike has translated into a sharp rise in profits for Europe's biggest oil companies. A new analysis of eight firms — Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Eni, Orlen, Repsol, OMV, and Moeve — finds they made about €7.5 billion in what researchers call "excess profit" tied to their European business in the first half of 2026 alone.

The analysis compares each company's profit in a 2026 "war quarter" to the same quarter a year earlier, which removes normal seasonal swings and doesn't require guessing what profits "should" have been otherwise. The first quarter of 2026, which included just one month of the conflict, brought about €1.6 billion in extra profit attributed to the EU. The second quarter, the first full quarter of the war, brought €5.9 billion, since prices stayed elevated the whole time.

This is a policy and industry story, not something that changes what any homeowner needs to do. But it matters for the broader energy conversation: it shows how a geopolitical shock can quickly swell oil company profits even as consumers pay more at the pump and for heating fuel. The researchers note these excess profits could be captured by a windfall tax if one were designed to do so, which is a decision for European governments, not homeowners here.