Global PV additions forecast to reach 638 GW in 2026

Global solar panel installations are expected to reach 638 GW in 2026, according to a new forecast from solar advisory firm Intertek CEA. That's a dip from last year, driven mainly by a slowdown in China, though most other regions should see steady or faster growth. Installations are expected to pick up again after this year, continuing through 2030.

The bigger story is pricing. The world is making far more solar panels and raw materials than it needs, but prices aren't expected to fall right away. In China, module prices are actually set to rise through 2026 and 2027 as manufacturers try to rebuild profit margins. In the US, prices are expected to stay elevated too, partly because of uncertainty over possible new tariffs tied to a government investigation into imported polysilicon (a key material used to make solar cells). The report notes that US manufacturing subsidies have narrowed the cost gap between American-made and foreign-made panels to just a few cents per watt.

For homeowners, this means solar panel prices probably won't drop much in the near term, despite the global oversupply. Analysts expect costs to start easing after 2028, as the market settles and manufacturers accept lower, steadier profit margins. If you're weighing a solar installation, it may be worth watching how the tariff decision unfolds, since it could affect what panels cost in the US over the next couple of years.