Cratering oil use in China shows the death spiral that could end oil

China's oil use dropped sharply this spring, falling 9% overall and 16% in transportation, enough to pull the country's total carbon emissions down 1%. That's notable because it happened even as China burned more coal, meaning falling oil use, not coal, drove the emissions dip for the first time. The main cause is the rapid shift to electric vehicles, including electric taxis and heavy trucks. About a quarter of cars on China's roads are now electric, up from 18% a year ago, and EVs there displaced more oil in six months than the entire UK used in that time.

China's state oil company now says the country's oil demand likely already peaked, years earlier than expected. Since China is the world's second-largest oil consumer, a sustained drop in its demand could ripple through global oil markets, potentially lowering prices and making new drilling projects less profitable to pursue. The piece argues this could snowball: less demand leads to lower prices, which leads to less new oil supply, reinforcing the decline.

None of this changes rebates or programs available to you directly, but it's a sign of where energy is heading globally. Falling oil demand and cheaper EVs elsewhere can eventually affect vehicle prices and incentives in the US too, which matters if you're weighing an EV alongside home upgrades like a heat pump or rooftop solar as part of an overall move away from fossil fuels.