Anza expects at least a 40% spike in solar module prices after Section 232

A new tariff on solar equipment is set to raise prices, and the increase is already showing up in quotes. On December 4, a 15% tariff on imported polysilicon (the raw material used to make solar cells) takes effect, under a trade rule called Section 232 that the Commerce Department is enforcing on national security grounds. The tariff will push up costs for polysilicon and the products made from it, including solar ingots, wafers, cells, and finished panels.

Data from Anza, a solar industry analytics firm, shows the effect is already underway. The median price for imported solar panels was $0.27 per watt before an August 7 announcement of the tariff; among suppliers that have since updated pricing, it is now $0.38 per watt for delivery after December 4, an increase of more than 40%. As of early September, more than half of suppliers on Anza's platform had already built the tariff into their prices.

For homeowners, this mainly matters if you're considering solar panels for your house. Prices for panels bought and installed after early December are likely to be higher than what you'd see today, since the tariff raises costs throughout the supply chain, not just for large developers. On the upside, the solar industry group SEIA says the U.S. already has enough panel-manufacturing capacity to meet current demand, and expects more domestic capacity for the upstream materials (cells, wafers, and eventually polysilicon) to come online over the next few years, which could ease price pressure down the road.