How the heating cost comparison works.
One formula, four fuels, every constant cited. This page covers the national heating fuel comparison and the Portland, Maine local calculator; both run the same engine with different dated defaults.
Cost per million BTU of delivered heat
A gallon of oil, a therm of gas, and a kilowatt-hour each contain a different amount of raw energy, and each heating system converts that energy into usable heat at a different efficiency. To compare them fairly, every fuel is converted to the cost of one million BTU (MMBtu) of heat actually delivered to the home:
For a heat pump, efficiency is the seasonal COP (coefficient of performance: heat delivered per unit of electricity, averaged over the heating season), so the electricity term becomes (¢/kWh ÷ 100) × (1,000,000 ÷ 3,412) ÷ COP. Annual figures multiply the per-MMBtu cost by the annual delivered heating demand you enter — delivered heat the home used, not the gross fuel energy you bought. Nothing is compounded, discounted, or projected; this is a comparison of the prices entered on the page, not a forecast.
Energy content and efficiency assumptions
| Constant | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Heating oil | 138,500 BTU/gal | Representative EIA conversion factor |
| Propane | 91,452 BTU/gal | Representative EIA conversion factor |
| Natural gas | 100,000 BTU/therm | Exact by definition of a therm |
| Electricity | 3,412 BTU/kWh | Conversion constant |
| Oil boiler AFUE default | 80% (band 75–85%) | Planning assumption for older stock; editable |
| Propane furnace AFUE default | 85% (band 80–90%) | Planning assumption; editable |
| Gas furnace AFUE default | 92% (band 90–95%) | Planning assumption for newer condensing stock; editable |
| Heat pump seasonal COP | 2.4 standard / 2.2 cold (default) | Planning assumption informed by HSPF2 rating bands; editable |
Heat contents are EIA's representative BTU conversion factors; real fuel varies slightly by blend and batch. The AFUE defaults are planning assumptions for typical equipment stock, not measurements of your system. The seasonal COP bands are planning assumptions informed by laboratory HSPF2 ratings (ENERGY STAR key product criteria, with seasonal COP approximated as HSPF2 ÷ 3.412); they are not validated seasonal performance for any specific home or city. Every efficiency input is editable on the calculators, and nameplate ratings beat defaults.
Default prices, sources, and dates
National calculator. Heating oil $5.535/gal and propane $2.674/gal are the final weekly EIA readings of the 2025–26 season (March 30, 2026; that survey resumes in October). Natural gas $1.46/therm is the midpoint of the derived-from-EIA 2025–26 heating-season band ($1.35–$1.57). Electricity defaults to the EIA national residential average for April 2026 (18.83¢/kWh, a historical reading; the live table now shows a later month) with Census-division overrides from the same release (for example New England 29.49¢). Sources: EIA weekly heating oil and propane prices, EIA natural gas residential price, EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.A.
Portland, Maine calculator. Heating oil ($5.33/gal) and propane ($3.59/gal) are the Maine Department of Energy Resources survey readings for Southeast / Greater Portland, September 8, 2026. They are spot cash survey averages, not quotes; the propane survey basis is a 30-day cash/credit price at 900 or more gallons a year. Electricity defaults to 24.68¢/kWh: the actual CMP Rate A residential tariff (2026 standard-offer supply 12.721¢ plus volumetric delivery 11.959¢, above the first 50 kWh/month) from the Maine PUC residential rate table as of July 1, 2026 and CMP's pricing page, both checked September 9, 2026. The $27.37 monthly service charge is excluded from the per-kWh figure because it does not change with incremental heating use for a customer keeping electric service. The EIA Maine state average (29.59¢, June 2026, released August 26, 2026) is offered in the utility selector as a dated fallback. Natural gas remains a national average because no Portland-area gas tariff was sourced; it is labeled "not a Maine rate" on the page.
Utility rate versus state average. Where an actual utility tariff exists it is used and labeled with its effective date; state or regional averages are labeled as dated fallbacks. Note the difference in what they contain: the CMP tariff default excludes the fixed monthly charge, while EIA average-revenue figures spread fixed charges over kWh, and the tool does not model adding or removing a utility account. Your own bill always beats both.
What this comparison leaves out
- Installation cost. The comparison is operating cost only. Equipment and installation decide most real projects, and rebates land on that side.
- Fixed charges. The CMP tariff default excludes the monthly service charge because it does not change with heating use. EIA average-rate fallbacks include fixed charges in their per-kWh figure, and the tool does not model connecting or disconnecting a utility service.
- Cooling. A heat pump also air-conditions, and that value is not in these numbers. Neither are duct losses, defrost cycles, maintenance, or backup-heat runtime.
- Seasonal swing. A seasonal COP is an average across the heating season; the coldest weeks run worse and the shoulder months better. Rate changes during the season are likewise flattened.
- Forecasting. Nothing here predicts next year's prices. The defaults are dated, and the honest move when they go stale is to enter your own.
Review cadence and corrections
Planned re-review: EIA electricity and natural gas figures roughly quarterly; heating oil and propane weekly with the DOER survey through the heating season; the CMP tariff monthly and before its next effective change; Maine program terms around known transitions, including the insulation program's September 30, 2026 completion date. This is the planned cadence, not a log of past checks; each page shows the date its defaults were actually last checked. To report a wrong figure, email [email protected] with the page and the number.
Pages using this methodology: national heating fuel comparison and Portland, Maine heating cost calculator.